What Futurists Do for a Living

When people ask what exactly futurists do for a living, they’re often expecting an eye-rolling response, given that most imagine us as corporate versions of the tarot-card-reading psychics that you see on late-night TV. But while most assume that it’s a keynote speaker and a futurologist’s job to predict the future, that’s an inaccurate assessment. Instead, it’s our job to study the state of the market, society, and geopolitics to identify emerging trends that clients should be aware of – then challenge partners to consider the potential impact of these trends on their business. That requires us to exercise a bit of anthropology, sociology and pedagogy. Still, more than anything else, it requires that we employ the ability to spot, analyse and capitalise on patterns that define the past, present, and future to come.

In truth, whether preparing a keynote speech for executives or consulting on what the coming years of economic and geopolitical upheaval will bring, it’s essential to remember the following: In today’s highly interconnected and interdependent world, you cannot examine single points of data in isolation. That’s because in an age where new technologies and trends are just a click or call away, what impacts individuals in one area of the world can quickly ripple and affect those in others. Moreover, current events and unexpected happenings can cause butterfly effects that reverberate in ways both predictable and unforeseen across markets and industries. By way of illustration, look at the Covid-19 pandemic, and its impact on nations, small businesses and supply chains around the globe, and the way in which subsequent effects cascaded to impact territories worldwide.

In effect, future-proofing a business and planning for tomorrow now revolves around understanding the countless interconnected threads that shape our world, guiding decision makers through uncertainty, and creating conditions that allow future possibilities to thrive. It is precisely why, together with my colleague Aric Dromi Jankov, we’ve developed an entirely new philosophy and approach to strategic planning and design, outlined in our latest book, The Shape of the Future: How to Design for Disruption, Plan for Uncertainty, and Adapt to Whatever Tomorrow Brings.

Specifically, in the book, we articulate a new way of seeing the world at large and the competitive landscape that businesses inhabit not as isolated components, but rather as intricate, ever-evolving systems that intertwine and change over time. When you start to see the world through such a lens, you begin to see the patterns that separate successful companies, leaders, and strategies over time, and how to leverage what’s come before to design more timely solutions that are better crafted to meet tomorrow’s trends and expectations.

In practice, systems thinking is at the heart of what we do. Looking to the past and present as sources of reference is therefore essential. It isn’t about finding ways to codify what’s worked and what hasn’t from a commercial perspective. Instead, it’s about finding clarity in an increasingly complex and fast-moving world. It’s about stepping back and observing how each decision, no matter how small, affects a larger tapestry – and learning from it to build solutions that are more adaptable, flexible, and capable of evolving as the world changes around them.

Imagine standing at the centre of a bustling city intersection, watching hundreds of cars navigate the space simultaneously. At first, the traffic’s rhythm seems chaotic. But zoom out far enough, and patterns begin to emerge. From stoplights to traffic signals to the flow of pedestrians and commerce, you start to see structure, order, and interconnectedness in what initially appeared random. And you might also begin to note how even the most advanced metropolises were constructed, laid out, and plotted through the art of urban planning to meet yesterday’s needs, often retroactively having to adapt as inhabitants’ living scenarios and needs changed over time. Once you begin to see these patterns, you can learn how to adjust them or create more effective ones that better serve future requirements and needs. Systems thinking is precisely this – a practice of actively stepping back to recognise the rhythm and patterns that hold our world together, and understanding what we can learn from them to improve upon going forward. When you peel back the tapestry of history and time, you can similarly begin to see patterns emerge across organisations, cultural movements, and even entire civilisations and learn what levers you can pull to better adapt in turn and create a more promising future.

The idea behind The Shape of the Future and the new design thinking model it introduces is simple, yet profound: Whether you’re talking about companies, teams, or even the shape of commerce across entire nations, to truly prepare for the future, we need to understand not just individual pieces of a puzzle. Instead, we need to understand how each component interacts and works in tandem to form the entirety of the puzzle itself. We must examine our environment from every angle, weaving together history, present circumstances, and future possibilities into a coherent narrative – and then learn how to write new chapters most effectively. This 360-degree perspective enables us to anticipate change more effectively, and to proactively plan for it, rather than simply reacting to it.

Again, consider the way towns have traditionally been built. Historically, city planning has focused on addressing tangible, immediate concerns, such as providing housing, transportation, and infrastructure. That tends to result in cities that have changed and evolved haphazardly over time, offering a layering of new towns, structures, and spaces on top of old, and not always in ways that produce satisfying results. One need only attempt to walk through the warrens of Paris’ and London’s older districts to discover how new construction, new roadways, and new amenities were often added on the fly, and not always with maximum efficiency or results.

However, if tomorrow’s city planners were to apply a systems thinking approach to urban planning, the possibility of designing more effectively and productively would expand. Suddenly, we’re discussing the design of city grids and the introduction of structures, streets, and amenities in ways that promote positive environmental impacts, greater social equity, enhanced economic sustainability, improved technological integration, and more efficient governance. Doing so would effectively allow them to plan for living spaces and gathering areas that address not only the needs of today’s citizens but also those of future generations. It would enable them to better plan for the needs of any future generations of the population. What we’re suggesting is that each element of a design shouldn’t be viewed in isolation, instead, each should be considered in ways that influence and shape the other, creating a more dynamic and resilient fabric.

Contemplating the world through the lens of systems thinking is especially powerful because it pushes us to consider things beyond the immediate present. In effect, we’re not just looking at what’s happening now, but also considering historical patterns and their implications for the future. When Henry Ford famously said, “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses,” he highlighted a fundamental challenge that futurists and business strategists of all stripes face. People often imagine the future as a linear progression from the present. Systems thinking, however, acknowledges complexity and non-linear change, for example, that technology may fundamentally and radically reshape the lives and needs of tomorrow’s citizens in ways we can scarcely imagine, and allows us to plan for the future in ways that recognise opportunities invisible to conventional thinking.

Why does this matter? Real innovation and meaningful change rarely come from making minor, incremental adjustments. Instead, they arise from understanding complex relationships and recognising leverage points where minor shifts in strategy or approach can produce profound, systemic transformations. The Shape of the Future introduces this philosophy, encouraging leaders to adopt more flexible, adaptable, modular, and resilient strategies and mindsets that are better equipped to withstand unexpected disruptions and thrive in the face of change.

Note that one of the most powerful principles of systems thinking that we embrace as futurists, and one grounded in historical reference points, is the concept of graceful degradation – designing systems that can continue to function, even partially, under severe stress. This idea comes alive when we look at today’s most resilient organisations. Take Toyota’s response to the devastating 2011 earthquake in Japan. Unlike competitors who struggled for months, Toyota had embedded flexibility and redundancy into its production methods and supply chains, allowing the company to bounce back within weeks. The firm’s systems weren’t built to resist disruption; instead, they were built to adapt and grow stronger because of it. In practice, it’s not the “strongest” organisations and individuals that thrive, it’s the most adaptable. Those who purposefully design for growth and change understand a fundamental truth: that flexibility is the essence of future-proofing.

The Shape of the Future introduces a design-thinking approach and strategic model that teaches us to embrace such systemic resilience. It’s about understanding that everything (economies, societies, technologies, and so on) is interconnected and therefore vulnerable to change. When futurists adopt this perspective, they can better anticipate disruptions, avoid unintended consequences, and foster innovations that strengthen entire systems rather than just individual parts.

This philosophy isn’t purely theoretical either. We’ve seen it transform companies, cities, and entire communities. Take Amazon’s extraordinary capacity for innovation. Rather than strictly predicting what might happen next, Amazon built adaptive capabilities into its core capabilities. The company constantly experiments, learns rapidly, and pivots fluidly, leveraging each new technology and market it pioneers to provide a platform for growth and future opportunities. In other words, the business routinely reinvents itself, includes room for growth, and embraces practices central to the systems thinking approach we advocate for.

To think systematically, futurists must become both historians and visionaries simultaneously. They must understand why things worked or failed in the past, see clearly what’s happening today, and imagine vividly what might occur tomorrow. This multi-temporal skillset is not just beneficial, but quite essential for surviving and thriving in an increasingly fast-changing and unpredictable world.

People and organisations both often fear uncertainty, craving predictable outcomes. But systems thinking, as we present it, is a celebration of uncertainty. It acknowledges that no future is entirely predictable. Yet, it equips us with the mindset and tools to proactively plan for tomorrow today and navigate complexity and ambiguity effectively in turn.

So why do we, as futurists, insist on seeing the world through a systems-based lens? Because it ultimately empowers us to offer clarity where others see chaos. Because it enables decision makers to make choices rooted in a deeper understanding. And, perhaps most importantly, because systems thinking reminds us that the future isn’t merely something that happens to us, it’s something that we can actively work to craft and shape every single day.

Through the book, we’ve articulated a philosophy for strategic planning and design that guides us toward building more resilient and adaptable organisations, strategies and futures. By embracing this holistic view, we unlock the potential to transform challenges into opportunities, confusion into clarity, and uncertainty into hope.

Tips for thinking like a futurist:

• Map out interconnections before making decisions  Before implementing changes in a strategy, business or marketing campaign, identify how each decision will ripple through different departments, stakeholders, and processes. Ask “What else will this affect?” to avoid unintended consequences.
• Build graceful degradation into your systems  Design plans, strategies, and operations that can continue to function as a whole even when individual parts fail. Create redundancies and flexible processes that allow your organisation to adapt quickly during disruptions rather than break down entirely in the face of change.
• Adopt a 360-degree perspective  When facing challenges, examine them from multiple angles: Historical patterns, current circumstances, and future implications. This multi-temporal view helps you anticipate change rather than react to it.
• Identify leverage points for maximum impact  Look for minor changes that can create disproportionately large systemic improvements. Focus on areas where minor shifts in process, culture, or strategy can transform entire operations.
• Experiment constantly and pivot fluidly  Build adaptive capabilities into your organisation’s core. Create safe spaces for testing new approaches, learning rapidly from results, and adjusting course based on what you discover about your system’s behaviour.